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                         林业碳汇 > 碳汇最新动态 > 正文

                          全国统一碳市场启动将近 千亿级碳交易市场可期
                          2016/12/8 16:36:00

                          据经济之声《央广财经评论》报道,2015年是有气象纪录以来全球气温最高的一年,减慢全球气温上升,减少全球二氧化碳排放要所新的市场机制,这种机制叫做碳交易。就是把二氧化碳排放权作为一种商品,减排好的企业可以卖掉二氧化碳排放权获得收益,想多排放的企业掏钱去买,付出一定代价。这样控制住二氧化碳排放总量,促进二氧化碳减排。

                          早在2011年10月国家发改委批准上海、天津、北京等七省市开展碳交易试点工作。现在全国统一碳市场启动临近。在近日召开的2016中国碳市场高峰论坛上,国家发改委应对气候变化司副司长蒋兆理表示,我国碳排放额分配办法将以基准线法为主,基准线就是碳排放强度行业基准值,是某行业的单位活动水平碳排放量,主要用于碳交易机制当中的配额分配。

                          按照国家发改委的初步估计,以当年全国7个试点地区的碳价平均标准测算,全国碳市场现货交易规模可达12亿至80亿元;如果考虑碳期货进入碳市场,交易规模将会放大到600亿-4000亿元。中国将成为全球最大的碳交易市场。全国统一碳市场将会在2017年启动,碳排放权总量和配额分配办法也是备受市场关注。目前整个碳市场交易无论是价格还是成交量都处于底部,由于鼓励减排的政策工具从行政命令型、财税鼓励型向市场转变,未来将会有巨大发展上升空间。

                          全国统一碳市场启动将近,千亿级碳交易市场可期。中国能源网首席信息官韩晓平就此做出解读。

                          韩晓平:中国为什么要参加碳减排?因为中国是全世界温室排放最多的国家,排放量是美国和欧盟的总和。由于过度的依赖煤炭,所以中国的人均温室气体排放量大大超过了世界平均水平,单位GDP的温室气体排量也大大超过了世界平均水平。中国已经和175个国家共同签署了《巴黎气候协议》,也就是全世界共同来应对气候变化。《巴黎气候协议》有一个底线,即地球升温不能超过2℃,空气中的二氧化碳浓度不能超过450ppm。去年是全球最热的一年,而今年可能会超过去年,实际我们的升温已经超过了1.5℃,现在把升温控制在1.5摄氏度才是我们的最终目标,所以必须马上采取减排。

                          而如何减排温室气体?主要通过两个指标的落实,一是温室气体的排放总量。这与我们的能耗总量有关系,即我们要控制能源消费总量来实现温室气体总量的下降。二是单位GDP能耗的排放量要下降,它的下降也会带动单位GDP二氧化碳的排放下降,这就是我们所讲的双控问题。中国经过一段时间的努力,有赖于经济结构的转型和技术进步,2014年我们煤炭的消费减少了2.9%,2015年减少了3.7%,今年上半年减少了5.1%,全年煤炭消费在继续下降。煤炭的下降使温室气体排放减少,这些能源被风电、光伏、水电、核电替代,但这些电要比煤更贵,因此我们需要建立一个有效的补偿机制。

                          因此通过市场来推动减排,最重要的是通过市场鼓励企业进行减排,进行投资。一个企业,如果在减排方面做了更多的创新、更多的投资,它应该得到补偿。这样就会有利鼓励整个市场活跃起来。到目前为止,经过北京、深圳等7个省市进行试点后,大家都认为我们需要建立一个全国性的碳交易市场。因为中国很大,各地的发展情况不一,资源禀赋也不同。如果我们建立一个好的机制,就可以使更多企业、更多地方用可再生能源。碳交易市场的规模将会非常大,按目前300块钱一吨计算,也已经达到了12到80亿,如果再考虑期货因素,那可能会达到600到4000亿。

                          中国是全球最大的温室气体的排放国,这既是我们的包袱,又是我们的财富,我们的排放总量超过90亿吨,这样一个巨大的量可能会带来上千亿的市场。这样一个碳交易市场建立以后,就会带来大量就业以及大量资本的流动和创新。而且更多机制的建立,比如碳的核查、交易代理,对冲、托管等各种各样的服务,会使我们的金融市场更加活跃。



                         


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